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You can't tell.
 
Smoak has at least a season's-fewer ABs with a wood bat.  Smoak has been rushed up the minor league ladder to the bigs and back.  His minor league patience and eye numbers far exceed Montero's.
 
Does the fact that he's 3 years older help him?  I'm sure it does.  Would you normally put a higher arc on the younger player with similar stats?  Yes.
 
But Smoak didn't spend his post-HS years in the minors, getting full-season instruction.  He spent them in College, getting far fewer ABs than he would have as a pro and with lesser instruction and metal bats, and he killed it there, so I'm not sure how Montero is the "faster developing" one other than being allowed to sign a pro contract before any US born player can.
 
College + minor league + pro ABs:
 
Smoak: 1562
Montero: 1337
 
Their experience levels are basically the same, even if their ages aren't.  Smoak has done everything asked of him - everything - and with the exception of 60 ABs as a Mariner has done them as well as could be expected.  Better than Montero (yes, Jesus is younger).
 
I don't mind people calling their shot.  "I would have preferred Montero over Smoak" is fine.  In a vacuum I would have taken Montero over Smoak.
 
That doesn't mean I regret taking the overall package, from a division rival, that would seem to be more ready for immediate use and a better fit for this park.
 
Would I rather Smoak was not slumping at the moment?  Sure.  But judging Smoak in a slump versus Montero in a hot streak and calling Montero the winner is sample-size and coincidental hogwash.  If Smoak is in Tacoma posting the 1.000 OPS he was in the minors earlier this year are we even having this conversation?
 
We might regret not taking Montero.  We might be grateful we took Smoak instead.  But you can only tell me who you'd feel more comfortable betting on at this point, not who's better.  Nobody's better, yet, and calling Montero an 80/80 hitter is, frankly, crazy at this point.  Paul Konerko was in AAA at 20 and CRUSHING AAA pitching at 21.  He put up .600 SLG numbers in a season and a half at AAA with a BA around .335.  He was also a converted catcher.  Was he an 80/80 hitter?  No.
 
Jack obviously believes Montero is not an 80/80 hitter.  If he did believe it, he would have taken it and run to the bank.  Is he wrong?  Maybe.  But I'm not betting against him.
 
~G