Hey Doc,
Compelling stuff. It seems in Part I that you're talking about a chicken or egg scenario. Does players that have an extraordinary high MILB K rate and fail in MLB also have a cruddy EYe? And do the ones that succeed , Jack Cust or Ryan Howard, for example have a nice EYE? Ergo, does the poor eye guy K a bunch because he's always behind in the count after swinging at balls out of the zone. And does the guy that does succeed do so because he doesn't swing at marginal pitches early as he "stalks" the pitch he wants.
I like the idea. A lot. Guys who "stalk" may not end up with a ton of walks...but may not give up many AB's as well. They may be looking for the 2 pitches a game that they can turn on.
Historically, Frank Howard was a monster. In '67 and '68 he struck out around 150 times each season. ONly 60 and 54 walks. OPSed at a rate of 153 AND 170! And those weren't high batting average years.
Tony Armas struck out 128 and 115 times in '80 and '81. Only walked 29 and 19 times. OPSed 126 and 125. That might be Halman like numbers. But cetainly Wilson's eye will mean he walks a shoe bunch more than that.
Remember "Byb Bye" Balboni. Struck out 139 and 166 times in '84 and '85. OPSed those years at a rate of 123 and 111. Most interesting about Balboni was his K rate in AAA ball. He came up for good in '84 (with brief call ups in the two previous seasons), in AAA ball from '81-'83 he played in 292 games and struck out 305 times! By conventional wisdom he couldn't hit MLB pitcing because MLB pitchers would find the hole in his swing. WRONG!
I've already compared (a month ago or so) Mike Wilson to Greg Luzinski. will not do it again here. but it is a very fair comparison. Luzinski was a very productive hitter.
I think we get hung up on the fact that we look at a Wilson-typed ans we say, "But he would be dead meat against Cliff Lee, or Felix, or Greg Maddux, or Jim Palmer or Tom Seaver or Orel Hershiser!" Well he would be...but so is the rest of baseball (Minus the short list of batters with equally impressive resumes). Those guys get everybody out.
But how would a Wilson do against a teams #3's-5's? How would he do against the long relief guy? I believe he would be a productive hitter! A MLB asset!
Bob gibson got everybodyout in 68 for the Cardinals. Nellie Briles and Steve Carlton, the #2 and #3 starters for the Cards that year didn't.
Mike Wilson would fare just fine against a regular diet of Nelson Briles.
Put him in the lineup.
moe
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