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With none out and a runner at third, you have two things happening that skew the data toward high run expectency:
1) You have three full outs to string together other offensive threats...your rally can survive two failures and still be producing runs.  That matters a lot in a game where even the best teams fail 64% of the time (a .360 team OBP is rare and very...very productive)
2) Generally, 0 out, runner at third implies that the pitcher is doing worse than 1 out runner runner at third.  Believe it or not, the net ERA for pitchers who find themselves in the former situation (for their entire appearance...not just that inning) is more than 1.5 runs worse than the net ERA for the pitchers who find themselves in the 1 out runner at 3rd scenario.