Repost from one buried in a thread at MC: Second basemen over .370 OBP in the majors:2010: Kinsler, Cano, Utley, Weeks, Kelly Johnson, Pedroia (some guys will fall out as the season goes on)2009: Utley, Pedroia, Castillo2008: Theiroit, Utley, Roberts, Pedroia, Kinsler 8 guys did it in 07, 3 in 06...and it's mostly the same guys, with some career years thrown in.
All-Stars on this list: Kinsler in 2008 and 10, Cano in 2010, Utley and Pedroia every year, Castillo and Roberts have been multiple times before...If you can put up that kind of OBP, regardless of power, you should see a couple of All-Star games.
OBP is a big stat for a MIF - and Ackley should be hanging around .370 as a low end projection.
His ultra-low end is Castillo at the plate, actually - average is good, though up and down, he has no power, but he can still command the zone and get a lot of walks even though he's just a slap hitter (OBP is .368 lifetime). Castillo's career OPS+ is 92, and that's with an ISO of .062.
Who thinks Ackley can only manage career highs of 6 HR and 23 2B in a season to match this low projection? Roberts would be the next step up from that with a 104 OPS+ and a .137 ISO. But if the power comes and he's not "just" a .280-.300 hitter? Sky's the limit.
Ackley at 1B or LF would need to find power fast. Ackley at 2B? With the positional adjustment he'll be deserving of All-Star and ROY votes year one, and we can afford the time to let him find some muscle in his swing.
Utley at 22 was not impressive, btw. .750 OPS in A+ ball. The Phillies jumped him to AAA the next year, skipping AA entirely because they knew he was great.
Pedroia looked just about like Ackley has after his first month's adjustment. He stepped into the bigs at 23 (in a hitter's park, true) and was a 112 OPS+ hitter from day one. Dustin is right on schedule, with a skillset to match. BTW, the seasons the Ms have had a 2B exceed .370 OBP in mostly full-time play:
2001: Bret Boone, .372.
That's it. In their history, it's been done once. Ackley should put his name on that list in short order.
~G
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