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He studied a large group of players aged 22, who had been league-average players in the majors. He found that 30-40% of them went on to HOF careers.
Many of the other 60-70% were stars in the majors, and most were at least Ruben Sierra or something.
The age-arc makes sense. If you're a quality big leaguer at 22, the sensible arc-plot is that you'll be a GREAT major leaguer.
And if you are doing as well as Franklin is at 19, it *raises the question* of whether you'll be a quality major leaguer at 22.
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The Bruce comp is provocative. :- ) Puts the age-19 MWL success into context.