The guy is playing at a level WAY above his age. One of two things are happening. Either this season is a freak for him, an outlier, never to be duplicated and therefore not to be used in evaluating future performance.....or he's the freak. Tremendous talent at a young age.
Agreed.
As I've said on MC:
Is it instant, guaranteed success? Cameron Maybin posted a .844 OPS in the MWL in 2006. He was a top-10 prospect in baseball 3 years running after that, and has been great in the minors as a CFer though he hasn't gotten it going in the bigs yet.
Jay Bruce posted a .871 OPS that year, same league, also as a teen. Top 15 prospect 2007, top-rated in ALL of baseball in 08. He's currently an average bat in the bigs ages 21-23 (in RF not a glove position).
Travis Snider? .904 OPS in 07 in A-Ball, in the bigs by 2009 as a 21 year old, posting average numbers in early returns (again, on a corner which makes Franklin more valuable if he can do the same).
If you can get to the bigs by 21, 22 and hold your own, you're probably gonna be pretty good. Maybe you'll never reach the lofty heights people imagine for you with Cal Ripken comparisons...but you should have a nice long career. And as a middle-infielder? The requirements go down and the hyperbole goes up.
And that's the track that Nick's on. What he has done this year is far harder than he's made it look, and based on previous years, it's also fairly indicative of pretty brilliant talent.
Could he still fail? Sure. Wlad posted a .834 OPS in a half-season in the Midwest League. He's a fringe player...but at a non-glove position.
Wlad's atrocious major league line (and .655 OPS) is actually better than Cedeno's, and bare percentage points behind Jack Wilson's. if Wlad could play short he'd be in the bigs right now.
And Nick is a better hitter than Wlad. I just have an awful lot of trouble seeing how he WON'T be in the bigs for several years, even if he "fails."
~G
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