Add new comment

Is there a reason to consider Felix as the best "numbers" CY candidate?  Sure.  But, it depends on which numbers one looks at and which are ignored.
Felix has a great K rate, (but Morrow, Lester, Weaver, Liriano and Colby Lewis all have better).
Felix has a great K/BB, (Lee, Weaver, Shields, Marcum, Liriano, and Baker are all better).
He's got a great ERA+, (only Bucholz is better).
He's second only to Lee in IP/GS.
Only Lee, Cahill and Weaver had a better WHIP.
*BUT* -- Felix also leads all the potentials (by a WIIIIIDE margin) in unearned runs allowed, (17).  The typical number for most of the guys is between 6-9. 
The thing is -- if one starts looking at stats - and suggesting W/L doesn't matter, why is Jered Weaver not in the discussion?  Better K rate - better K/BB rate - top 3 in QS% - 2nd in Ks.  He's also 11-11.  Yet, nobody is suggesting him.  Why?
In the end, it's because the tendency for most "number" guys is to go and utilize the stats that help support the desired conclusion.  (I've been guilty of this myself, and will likely be so in the future, too).  But, absent a formula to use *BEFORE* the season begins, there is going to be a subjective element to the selection, regardless.
By FIP and xFIP, both Liriano and Lee come in ahead of Felix.  (Grienke won in 2009 while leading in FIP, btw).  Felix wins by WPA, (Pirata will be thrilled!). 
Which is the "right" stat to use? 
I agree with Doc's basic sentiment, though.  While the CY was often a joke by relying almost solely on Wins for so many years - it is a mistake to dismiss them COMPLETELY.  Should Nolan Ryan have won the Cy Young in '87, when he lead the league in ERA and Ks, but went 8-16?  Or would giving the CY award to an 8-16 pitcher kind of insult the basic value of all pitchers.  (Pitching is sooooo unimportant in terms of winning and losing, the best pitcher in the league can lose 2/3 of his decisions).
There's been talk about all the innings Felix has pitched.  Would he have pitched those if the Ms had Rivera in the pen?  Is there a point at which we start rewarding SPs for having crappy instead of good bullpens? 
Honestly, the guy *I* currently lean toward, (in a very crowded race), is C.J. Wilson.  Why?  Context. (which is the heart of Doc's argument, I think). Felix is a great pitcher, throwing in a great pitcher's park, with a solid defense behind him in games that mean nothing.  He's got about every advantage a pitcher could have to rack up great PERSONAL numbers.  He's even managed to slosh 17 runs into the unearned column, twice what the other potentials have done.  And when Lee was with Seattle, he out-pitched Felix ... easily.
Lee, in Texas, has been another story.  Suddenly those warning shot outs are flying over the fence.  In 88 innings with Texas, Lee has surrendered 10 HRs, (he gave up 5 in 103 IPs with Seattle).  C.J. Wilson has been throwing in the Texas context all season - giving up 8 HRs in 180 innings.  Felix has allowed 15 in Seattle.
Of course, C.J has worse K and BB numbers.  But, he's *GOT* to pitch differently in Arlington than one pitches in Seattle.  Two games in Arlington this season, Felix has a 6.23 ERA with 2 HRs allowed in 13 innings.  For his career, Felix has a 4.44 ERA in Arlington with a 7.6 K/9 and 2.09 K/BB, (both numbers almost a full point lower than his career figures).
ERA is a poor stat.  We get this.  Yet, you stick a plus on the end of it, and the pretense is that the stat is tons better.  Well, it's a LITTLE better - but it's just a minor polishing of a stat this is still flawed.  The park adjustments aren't perfect - and they don't fix most of the underlying problems with ERA as a stat to begin with.  But, ERA tells you "something".  Just like QS% tells you "something".  Just like wins and losses tell you "something".  But, even FIP and WAR don't take into everything there is about a pitcher.  SHOULD a pitcher be trying to strike out the side when he's up by 7 runs?  Or, should he just be pitching to contact (and avoiding HRs)? 
Yes, lack of run support hurts the W/L record.  But, lots of run support likely does (and should) skew some of the peripheral numbers, too.  You do *NOT* pitch around Branyan when you're up by 7 runs in the 3rd inning.  You don't intentionally walk Ichiro when up by 10.  Pitching is inherently linked to context. 
Greinke has a K/BB almost identical to Felix'.  He's got run support exactly equal to Felix.  But, his ERA is 3.90?  Why?  Because he's got the worst defenses in baseball behind him. 
Should Felix be in the discussion?  Absolutely.  But, Felix has the #1 easiest context one could hope to put up great individual numbers.  CC has great offensive support - but plays in a HR-dangerous park, in a city notorious for pressuring its sports stars - in the midst of a pennant race.  Wilson plays in the likely #1 hitters park in the AL - in a pennant race - for a team that hasn't done anything in a decade - where the guy who was even better than Felix (while in Seattle) has largely struggled since arriving.
I don't know of any stat that is adept at putting ALL that context around the raw stats.
I can see a half dozen potentially deserving CY candidates.  The guy I view as having accomplished the most while facing the greatest hurdles (so far) is Wilson.  Maybe that isn't the "best" way of looking at things.  But, I definitely agree with the Doc that "context" has to be a part of the discussion.  Yes, FIP and WPA are and K/BB are great to look at.  But, even the stats that are concerned with context don't capture ALL the variables of context.  Wins is simply another stat to consider which captures a part of context that might be lost elsewhere.