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Baker's argument carries a little more weight with me than it seems to with you Doc, w/r/t Leuke's culpability.
From what we do know of the crime, the victim's story never changed, and she exhibited none of the motivations sometimes seen in these types of cases - lust for money and lust for fame.  She's pursued neither, and in all aspects her behavior has been consistent with 'victim of a sex crime'.  There's no reason based on (what we know of) the facts to project any of your P-E-R-H-A-P-S scenarios.  They are possible, yes, but even less likely in this case than usual.  Baker is drawing the most reasonable conclusions from the facts.  As did, presumably, the judge and prosecutors.
Armstrong hasn't traded Leuke back to the Rangers because would be usurping JZ's authority to such a degree as to be effectively firing him.  And he and Lincoln are not ready to do that.  That's my guess.