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Kevin Witt ... :-)
Age 19 in A ball had 148 K and 28 walks in 119 games, and a lousy .232/.280/.397 (.677) line
Age 21 in AA, 109/44 K/BB in 127 games, but with a .289/.349/.539 (.888) line.
Had one .708 half season in pros, then flew to Japan. 
This is (I think) what Taro is getting at.  Witt, after a palatable K rate in AA, spent the rest of his career fanning once per game in AAA with low walk totals and high 20s HRs.  And it's pretty easy to find career AAA players with 30-HRs and a 1-K per game rate (with subpar walk rates), but VERY few of them make it TO the majors - much less have success there.
The high-K guys that get the call *MUST* have at least decent walk rates.  At this moment, Chavez looks a WHOLE lot like Bucky Jacobsen with fewer walks.  But, he's also low enough in the system where if he can improve EITHER his walks or his Ks, maybe he'll get a shot. 
But, if you go and scan the HR leaders in the CALL in 2005, who is on top?  Brandon Wood with 43 HRs and 128 Ks and 48 walks in 130 games.  LaHair had 22 dingers and 125/51 K/BB in 126 games back in 2005, too. 
The only success from 2005 would be Nate Shierholz - with 132/32 K/BB (and a .319 BA), who thus far is an 88 OPS+ MLB hitter.  (Nate only had 15 HRs that year - so not a perfect comp).
But, the guys who hit 30 HRs in the low minors that DO succeed almost always have significantly better walk and/or K numbers.  Honestly, you HAVE to get Chavez out of High Desert before you can even begin to assess his real potential.  Home/road splits alone don't capture the full impact of playing 1/2 your games in a place that behaves so differently than everywhere else.