Dye WAS in the bigs at 22 - and failed. He was brought up too early and could only get bad part-time performances in the bigs for 3 years with a .22 batting eye, getting optioned back to the minors each year for parts of those seasons. Dye hit his stride at age 25 in his 4th big league season (and first full-time one).
Jermaine's .44 minor league batting eye is better than Chavez's .31 for sure. But Chavez posted a .40 in A+ at 21 (.50 for the second half of the year), while Dye put up a .40 in A-ball at 20 and a .36 in AA at 21. Dye hit AAA at 22 and then spent parts of 3 seasons there. It's not inconceivable that Chavez hits AAA at the end of next year. I don't know quite what to make of his year based on his league and park, but I know it was impressive on any level.
And it's not that far off the Dye track or comparison (higher Ks aside, since the ratios are similar). Jermaine didn't have to repeat A ball, so he's ahead of Chavez there. Dye WAS in AA at age 21 instead of high A, but he skipped A+ all together. Could Chavez have skipped the Cal League and posted a .800ish OPS like Dye instead of the .965 he did post in a bigger hitter's league and park? I don't know. Since the High Desert hitting coach was tweaking his approach and swing, it may be very fortunate for us and him that he was not pushed that hard.
Dye was pushed very hard. And it retarded his development, IMO. Still, to catch up to Dye's pro-AB track Chavez has 700 more at-bats to go before he needs to be a good major leaguer. He's probably not gonna make that. But if he did he would be 23 instead of 25 when doing so. Age may not be the most important indicator, but it does say something.
They would be taking slightly different approaches to get to their performances. Chavez Ks more certainly. But I would still think 30 HR/ 30 2B and a .290/.340/.480 would be indicative of the sort of performance I'd want from a successful version of Chavez, and that's Jermaine Dye.
Chavez has proven he's a worthwhile addition to the minors for this team and not some scrub add-in. Is he on a fast-track to the bigs or is he gonna loop around a while like Wilson and Halman, trying to prove to someone that he can learn and won't get exposed and humiliated in the bigs? I dunno.
His PROBABILITY to be Dye isn't large, but it's the outcome I'd put as his goal.
Though I'd certainly take Nelson Cruz. First step, though, is to maintain his skills in AA. Alternately we could trade him now and call it a day...and that's an option I would leave on the table.
~G