POTD Hiroyuki Nakajima - 2.0 wins or 3.0?
Rollin' ...
Maybe he can be Tad Iguchi. Getting the 28-29 years of Tad Iguchi at SS (or 2B) added to his 30-32 years doesn't sound bad at all. Tad's power died at 32, never to be seen again.
Still, that's 4 years away for Nakajima. We just don't play in the ChiSox hitter-friendly park. It's a risk, especially since he'll be here until he retires from MLB.
~G
PROPS: G's MID projection for Nakajima presumes the Iguchi outcome, which is reasonable... if Nakajima were Tadahito Iguchi, that would be what?
- 90-100 OPS
- Solid glovework
- Medium everything (AVG/OBP/SLG) 270/330/420
- With good not great speed
- +2.0 WAR
And: upgrading from a sucking chest wound, to +2.0 WAR ... .that would be the same as upgrading an average player to a star.
- Jack or Josh Wilson -0.3 WAR :: (Tadahito Iguchi-level Nakajima) +2.0 WAR
- Franklin Gutierrez 2.3 WAR :: Angel Pagan, Chris Young 4.5 WAR
I tried to find other mediocre players the M's could upgrade to stars, but after Ichiro and Gutierrez, no Mariner had 1.0 WAR.
But you get the point. Would you be interested in exchanging a mediocre ballplayer for Ryan Braun and his 4.5 WAR? You can do that from 2010 to 2011, by putting Hiroyuki Nakajima at shortstop.
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SLOPS: Taro -- who certainly understands Nakajima better than any of us Americans -- says not +2.0 WAR but +3.0 WAR.
The difference between 20 and 30 runs is merely the difference between a 93 OPS+ and a 103 OPS+, along with a couple of defensive plays.
Dr. D therefore pegs NPB colossus Nakajima as a 3 win player, rather than a 2 win player ... and considering the M's had a minus player last year, well....
Here is a fangraphs article in which Patrick Newman opines that the best hitters in all of Japan are
- Aoki
- Nakajima
- Everybody else
We don't argue whether Japan's best players are very good players in MLB. We argue about whether their filler stacks up.
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STOPS: If Dr. D found out that the Mariners were going to make a serious bid for Nakajima, he'd be enthused.
Right away, I'd want to hear noises to the effect that Nakajima, Franklin, Ackley and Smoak could all play together -- you know, a month down the road, "We love Nick Franklin's future and if he continues to progress as we expect him to, he'll find a spot in our lineup somewhere."
.................
How do you plan for Nakajima's falloff, after the park crushes him? As it crushed Johjima, Lopez, Gutierrez, Richie Sexson, Adrian Beltre, and almost every other RH hitter here?
Well, some righties are special enough that Safeco doesn't affect them. Edgar Martinez played five (5) full years in Safeco, and never let it bother him at all. Vlad Guerrero loves to hit here.
There's the sword stuck in the anvil. I wonder what Yamauchi-san would say if you asked his blessing on a 3-, 4-year plan. Failing that, you'll have to plan on a year or two of embarrassment, if Nakajima isn't Edgar.
.................
Sure would be nice to have 25, 30 runs from short, though.
Cheers,
Dr D