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Good stuff, Doc.
Another thing the saber-types gloss over is the ability to make the deal. Z had the opportunity to acquire Lee without a bidding war (he was stepping in to help the Phillies out). He instantly saw that there was no downside.
Most likely outcome: get him without a bidding war; trade him with a bidding war. That's how Gillies becomes Smoak. Can't saber that. That's being a smart operator in the real world.
Then Ryan, or whomever it was: making the flying leap with Smoak-plus (and it's looking more like plus-plus-plus) to intercept Lee at the goal line when NYY had already started their touchdown dance.
Reconfigure the ALCS with Lee as a Yankee and try to get interested.