I could see Smoak put up a Josh Willingham line for the next couple of years, with a 115-125 OPS+. .260/.360/.460? Totally doable, and around a 115.
Ackley will have to work HARD not to post a 105. Pedroia walked into the league with a 112 and hasn't looked back.
Here's a post I made on Ackley's best trait, his OBP, and how that converges with being a middle infielder:
http://www.marinercentral.com/forum/index.php?showtopic=4663&view=findpo...
Second basemen over .370 OBP in the majors:2010: Cano, Utley, Kelly Johnson
2009: Utley, Pedroia, Castillo
2008: Theiroit, Utley, Roberts, Pedroia, Kinsler
Dustin will be on a fairly exclusive list from day one, if his batting eye and patience are what we think they are. I don't care if Ackley has zero power his first few years. Castillo has a career OBP of .368 and a 92 OPS+ with a .064 career ISOP. That's the basement of Ackley's skillset, and I expect him to clear it by a wide margin.
But just hitting a low projection should make both he and Smoak into useful pieces of a 2011 run at .500. I'd consider Smoak's projection a little tougher than Ackley's, but not a lot.
Pineda as a decent starter should be a given, assuming health. He'll be on an innings limit but the guy will give the bullpen a nice break on many nights when his FB is on.
Like you said, not asking for the universe in those projections. But I'd still take the pressure off those projections by adding some veteran voices. A DH with juice left in the bat is a must, and not some journeyman kid either.
And I'd like an elder statesman on the pitching staff. I'd be okay with Moyer for a non-contending year. I just don't want a bullpen and starting rotation full of kids to have to look to each other for leadership just yet, and making the Smoak/Ackley duo the locker room leaders off the bat doesn't seem wise either.
Leadership does mean something still, and we need it. Then those decent-but-not-worldbeating lines can be the start of something good. Getting the right couple of vets in here is as important as when Ackley takes the field for the Ms, IMO.
~G
Add new comment
1