While I concede that BABIP is significantly luck-driven a lot of the time...we made those arguments for Adrian Beltre, Richie Sexson, etc etc...we were confident they'd come back to something closer to normal...and they never did.
When you fan 200+ times a year, BABIP isn't the point anymore. There's something wrong with the way you work the strike zone. Period. You've got holes in your swing that real pitchers will exploit...you've got a slow swing...you're bad at recognizing breaking pitches...whatever it is. And if you keep INCREASING your K rate...that means you're not adjusting at all. Period.
Reynolds will die a horrible...painful death in the AL. Please note that his OPS against the AL, career, is .693 with 73 punchies in 51 starts (!!). This one...this one will not translate even if he goes to a hitter's haven like the Skydome or Texas. If you goes to Safeco...total and complete DEATH.
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