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To me, Upton is the poster child for OVER-fixation with age-arc projection systems.  Because he got to the majors early, (43 games at age 19), and because he had a stellar year at 21, (.899 OPS), he's being viewed like Ken Griffey at 19. 
Granted - he's got some interesting age comps - Miguel Cabrera, Andruw, Juan Gone.  But, he's also got some not quite as shiney, (Ruben Sierra is his current #1 comp through age 22), and his NON-age comps are dreadful - (Dick Kokos, David Murphy, Don Lenhardt, Jim Greengrass).
Contemporary comps?  Adam Jones and Jeff Francoeur stand out.
Me?  I think Upton is a "nice" corner OF bat, playing in a significant hitters park, (where his OPS is 160 points higher than his road OPS, and he's hit 60% of his HRs).  In point of fact, his road OPS is .742.   
In his 3 seasons, he hasn't made ANY progress in his K-rate, (still well over once per game - 477 Ks in 422 games - with 2010 being a new personal worst in total Ks (152 in 133).
After hitting 26 HRs in 2009, he dropped back to 17 in 2010. 
He's also had health issues - (108, 138, 133 games the last three seasons).  He's only 22, and has yet to manage 140 games in a season.
His career line: .272/.352/.471 (.824) is nice - and nearly identical to his 2010 line (.273/.356/.442 (.799)). 
Why the drool?  Simple.  Because he came up REAL early. 
But Cabrerra IMPROVED his first 4 seasons.
Andruw Jones IMPROVED his first 4 seasons.
The truth is - Upton THUS FAR - has a profile more like Francoeur than the uber-stars he's getting comped to.  Jeff his 29 HRs his second season, (and 19 the next, and hasn't broken 20 since). 
Not saying Upton is Francouer.  He's not.  But Upton, after 1700 MLB PAs is a .272 hitter with 23-HR power, (if he could play a whole season).  He walks a little, and showed some improvement there in 2010 - but Upton wasn't even a .300 hitter in the minors, (and the bulk of his minors PAs were in A ball). 
He "might" develop into a 30-HR hitter.  But, for me - the FIRST thing you look at from a potential acquisition is what is his ROAD slash line.  That removes bias from a friendly home park.  And THEN, you start looking at reducing that road slash line by the Safeco effect if he bats right.
The combined career line for the retired Upton comps ends up with a 117 OPS+.  That's a good score.  It ain't a 140.  Only one guy on the list, (Boog Powell) ended up over 130 (131). 
Yeah, if you're trading for Miguel Cabrerra, with multiple 30-HR, .900+ OPS seasons under your belt, you expect multiple near-ready prospects.  Would everyone be equally hyped about trading Ackley/Smoak + Pineda for Adam Jones TODAY?!?  It's basically the same trade, (except Jones plays better defense, while playing in the harder league).
Personally, I'd have trouble coming up with a worse potential import to Safeco than Justin Upton.