The questions about Nishioka:
1) What's his true level as a player? I keep hearing 3 WAR player tossed around like some kind of law or bare minimum of achievement.
His career average is .292/.364/.426.
His best composite line from all of his pre-2010 years is .300/.366/.463.
His 2010 is .346/.423/.482, better than his previous career bests in AVG and OBP by 40 or 50+ points.
Sure, if I just drop 40 slugging points off his 2010 like he's an incredible player. If I drop it off his 2009 line of .260/.360/.427 he looks a whole lot more like Chone's 2010 than like a 3 WAR player.
Which is the real Nishioka? What are we paying for?
2) Figgins this year was rated as a 1.3 WAR player. A .650 OPS player can indeed be a liveable MIF bat, scarily enough. If Nishioka is only a 1+ WAR player instead of a 3+, how hard is that to replace? Can we get a Bloomquist type to do it? Can we expect the bounce from a 65 OPS+ at the position to become an 85 OPS+ and render it merely annoying instead of diabolically detrimental?
That's what L-Rod's task is: to provide a 1+ WAR player for nothing. Can he do it? I'm doubtful, even with his sudden power spike in AAA. Do I believe a SS patch can be found or traded for that is merely adequate instead of a hole? Yes.
3)Is he a SS? We all speculate he is, but if he's not then we're in deep trouble, because we already HAVE the 2B of the future in Ackley. He has no place to play if he can't hold down short. The guys who won the bidding on him have no such problem - they're hiring him to play 2B. We don't have that luxury.
Personally I think #3 must have been the deciding factor. If he's not a SS it's all moot. I don't think L-Rod is really a SS either, and his defensive numbers bear that out, but if he can hit enough then it won't matter. If Jack thought Nishioka's 2010 wasn't representative of his true talent level and put his offense much lower, then had doubts about his defensive position, then it's not worth it.
If he could be a SS, then even a 2010 Chone Figgins line at that position is better than what we've been getting for the last 2 years there.
So now we get to take the 3-4 million a year that we didn't spend on Nishioka and spend it on a different position, trying to get that WAR boost. Maybe we can get a cheap DH or LF with club controlled years, or a 1-year deal on a guy that falls through the cracks on the cheap.
Whatever it is, since we're not spending it to fix the hole at shortstop we had better use those funds to fix a different offensive hole.
No more Kotchmans. We need a couple of plus bats added to this lineup, and we need em now. If we choose to keep that money for a power position, I'm fine with that. We need power and MOTO hitters, and Nishioka offered neither.
I can see how adding Nishioka at SS as our major offseason addition to the lineup could be viewed as making the same mistake as adding Chone in 2009 - OBP infielder that adds zero pop and leaves the run-producing sections of the lineup barren.
But that means we still NEED those bats. I smell a trade. A trade and a short-term DH contract for a guy who loses at musical chairs.
Fingers crossed it's the right guy, then.
~G
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