Matt,
I stand correct. You did not miss my point.
All the same.....
Over the last 4 years...Figgins averaged 98 OPS+ in Anaheim. (I won't bring up that his two "great years" were complete outliers...one created by an astronomical BAHIP and one by an amount of walks that was 60% above his norm). OK...what does 98 OPS+ = in Safeco? I don't know. Let's say it is 92. Fair guess. Then his 84 total last year was about an 8% or 9% decline from historical norms. That certainly isn't a wild surpirse. It is within the expected level of performance. If Figgin's hits .280 and OBP's .350 and slugs .340 this year...are you going to tell me that is a good offensive year? That's Mark Belanger/Omar Vizquel stuff (in good years)....except they were GG/HOF type fielders AT SS!
In LA, ATL and Boston (not exaclty Safeco)...over the previous 3 seasons (his career as a near full-timer) Kotchman hadOPS+ of 119, 93 and 90. his trend in hitter's parks was around a 95 figure.
So that translates to.....90 (or less) in Safeco. OK...he was off 18% last year. But if you throw out the distant '07 (how many teams are going to sign him this year on his '07 production) he figures to be an 82 guy in Safeco. He was 10% or so, off.
He was a cruddy signing. Ditto, Figgins (but worse).
Please declare. Either they were good or neutral or cruddy signings. which is it?
Figgins, on the road, hit .267/.338/.327...OPS .665
Figgins, second half, hit .286/.349/.339...OPS .689
That "good" second half he had....OPS .689!
That isn't very "good"....Just saying.
The M's toatal OPS for last year was .637...and that included Byrnes, Jack Wilson, Rob Johnson, Griffey and the pitchers.
Kotchman was a bad hire. Figgins was worse(and that isn't mentioning his selling Wak down the river).
But I will admit that you have SABR'ed more than me. I will defer.
If we had paid Mangini $8M to OPS .690 during his hot 1/2 of a season....would he be worth it?
moe
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