If defense is not a constant that can be relied on (the old adage speed and defense show up every day is obviously not true) AND the defenders were horrible offensive players when put in the same lineup...
How is that not a philosophical failure?
If weaker bats need those big bats in the lineup, and we don't have the big bats, and we don't GET the big bats, why would 2011 be significantly better? The bounceback effect only goes so far. Yes, we had a compilation of terrible seasons. But WHY? Were guys playing out of position messing with their production? Was the pressure of trying to lift the offense as a #8 hitter destroying them?
I happen to think the absence of even one bat that could lift them to victory single-handedly did help to crush the spirits and performances of the team.
Look, the 2000 Mariners went to the AL championship and they had roster holes. They won 91 games with a roster that included:
- a 62 OPS+ Dan Wilson for half a year.
- an 81 OPS+ Rickey who was subbed for by a 64 OPS+ Ibanez and a 74 OPS+ Al Martin.
- An 80 OPS+ David Bell at 3B.
- A 76 OPS+ McLemore at 2B.
So how'd we overcome that?
CF was 107 OPS+, 1B was 116 OPS+, RF was 126, DH was 157, SS was 162.
Wow. A couple of huge bats really carried that lineup. That team was 2nd in OBP, middle of the pack in slugging, looow in average, and summed to a 107 OPS+.
WITH those huge bats. Replace Edgar and A-Rod with 40 year old Griffey and Jack Wilson and see what happens. I bet you Cammy tanks trying to do too much (see: Gutz) and Buhner has a down year (see: Ichiro) and the offense goes in the toilet.
I think we have the 116 OPS+ 1B in Smoak. We could have the 107 CF in Gutierrez, who doesn't have the Safeco problem that Cammy had. We even have the 126 RF in Ichiro, assuming an up year.
We don't have the MOTO bats. The idea that we could build an offense with deficient bats who would all put up rock-hard totals with no feared bats in the lineup was wrong.
It was just wrong. They're soft bats who get softer and weaker the more exposed and helpless they are made to be by the other hitters in the lineup.
My problem with last season wasn't Bay (I didn't want him for that price) but rather with the idea that no MOTO bats need apply. If we didn't like Branyan medically then we needed another thumper, and we passed for the soft bat of Kotchman, trusting that his glove would help out. We ditched Silva for Bradley, hoping that he'd be able to re-locate his power in LF, and retained 2 dying DHs even though the odds were against them ever helping us. DH and LF aren't helping with the glove. They NEED to be able to help with the lumber, and the downside players we chose cratered.
We're not finding two 150+ bats this offseason. I accept that. I also accept there should be some bit of rebound from career lows from some players.
But we need a couple more 125+ bats or we're in trouble again, IMO. 2 power positions are open in LF and DH, so 2 bats need to be found.
I don't think Saunders is one. I'd move him to CF if we traded Gutz, or I'd trade him to get one.
And then I'd add a DH with at least a modicum of thump. We desperately need it.
Gloves are great. They help the staff fine. Gloves at the expense of bats are how we get 500 run seasons, and even the best pitcher in the league - which we had - can't win with that kind of support.
~G
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