POTD Jesse Crain - Tactics Dept.
Interesting Mariner Central thread on Crain. - Dr D
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Q. Is Jesse Crain a Dr. D specialty or is this generic family-practice opinion we're getting?
A. Our roto squad, Boyz II BABVA, spends as much time scoping closer-wannabe's --- > as does the next roto squad along, we s'pose.
For those of you who haven't played roto before: after the initial draft, the first yellow sticky on the side of your computer? That's the sticky that contains the names of 8 or 10 or 12 ace relievers who are setting up for shaky closers.
You scrounge these setup men and once the banana on the hot seat blows three saves, boom, you have a free 3rd-round draft pick.
Crain has been a potential closer since about 1941.
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Q. Is SSI bullish on Crain's ability to close games?
A. No. Shandler disciples wouldn't touch him with a 10-foot pole. Crain's "Base Performance Values" -- his peripheral statistics -- are far, farrrrrrrr below "closer-worthy" in HQ's eyes.
A few typical BPV's:
- 125 to 150 -- solid closers, Papelbon, Street, Nathan
- 100 or so -- there are 50 relievers in the majors at this level, including Brandon League
- 75 or so -- this is a quality reliever, maybe not an 8th inning guy, like Ryan Franklin in a good year
- 50 -- league average BPV whether starting or relieving
- 50 -- Jesse Crain
Shandler wouldn't even consider handing Crain the ball if legit choices were available.
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Q. What's the problem with him?
A. Clearly minus command within the strike zone. Straight fastball. Centered fastball. Too many walks.
Crain had a minus run value on his fastball in 2010, and he had a minus run value on his fastball in 2009, and he had a minus run value on his fastball in 2008, and he had a minus run value on his fastball in 2007, and he had a minus run value on his fastball in 2006.
Whatever Crain's fastball looks like -- and it looks great -- well, on the field that fastball has been below average. Always.
Think Brandon League, 2010. Verrrrrrrrrry similar. All show, no go.
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Q. The fastball looks great? Why?
A. He has a wonderfully deceptive short-arm delivery, almost Sherrill-like, comes over the top with it no less.
And despite the lack of leverage, he dials that puppy up to 97 mph. You'd think he'd be untouchable. But on the field, he is very touchable. His fastball has been hit for five years in a row.
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He combines that with a genuinely plus slider -- it looks almost like a palmball, bottom falls out of it, and it is always a plus pitch for him.
Sounding a 'tall like League, pre-2010?
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