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And he'd be the first to tell you that.  We're not talking about a controlled study at all.
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He, and I, would simply say "If are shooting for a Cinderella team, this is the way it has usually happened before."
That's not the same thing as saying, "If you try the Cinderella recipe, it will work."  Right.
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As you know, the human mind is not a computer.  We do, and should, work on intuition and fuzzy logic.  Chess GM's can't compete with computers using math.  They can compete using intuition and fuzzy logic.
Just because we haven't proven how Cinderella teams work, that shouldn't stop us from seeing how suggestive the tendency is. 
Many Cinderella teams won early in the season, and got their fragile confidences restored through the examples of a few leaders with swagger.  We can benefit from that light bulb.