Likely good investment for two years - but a couple of less-than-ideal years mixed in.
One of the keys when speaking of player profiles and such is that the physical makeup of a player plays a MAJOR role in their longevity. *BIG* guys tend to wear down below the waist - the knees go, (the lower back), hammies, groin pulls, etc.
One of the ugliest parts of trying to comp Dunn is while his bbref comp lists is littered with guys who had strange (or ugly) career tails.
Dunn's comp-list is compromised by the reality that his BA is significantly lower than all the guys on his comp list - but his walks are higher than everyone.
Strawberry's career can't be a good comp, since the ugly ending had little to do with ability or age.
But - there IS a commonality for his comps - (the ones who quit early AND the ones who played many more years). Almost every one had at least one bad year by age 34. (Age 34 is a really popular age to miss a lot of time and/or lose 200 points off the OPS). *BUT*, the guys that kept playing also tended to bounce back.
You see, it's not the ABILITY that typically vanishes overnight (though there are exceptions - as evidenced by the Richie Sexson train wreck). The reality is that the "big" guys tend to hit injury walls -- where the acute injuries become chronic. In the steroid era - things changed - because the chronic injuries vanished for many thanks to the chemsitry set.
That fact the ChiSox have gotten so many years from Thome after his (age 34 - heh heh) disaster with the Phillies, when he hit .712 in 59 games -- is a likely boon to Dunn.
If I'm the ChiSox GM, I might well be "hoping" for a horrid age 34 season - so I can re-sign him cheap and get another 3 years.
But, the danger here is the low BA. as I believe there is a BA "tipping point", where once you slip below a certain level, production is compromised elsewhere. Dunn doesn't have a safety net in regards to BA. His eye may remain - but HOW he is pitched to and how many walks he's "fed" may alter if his BA drops to say .215. The SABR guy is fine with a .200/.330/.500 (.830) bat. But, most of baseball isn't. The "disaster" scenario is the .830 Dunn that nobody wants to play -- (Dunn could catch a bad case of Branyan Bench Syndrome).
But, I think the more likely route is Dunn is great production in 6 of the next 8 years - with the leading variable being HEALTH.
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