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"Almost you persuade me..." (Acts 26:28, disputed translation), Doc.
IF Olivo overcomes the Safeco effect on hitters of his profile, if his average and power translates directly to Safeco, then he becomes a pickup with some value. But this is precisely the question, and as far as I can tell in several articles you do not once address this point, which is central to the anti-Olivo opinion.
If your selling point on a player is "he'll be a tremendous improvement over the manure pile we had last year...average is better," point taken. One would hope the standard of comparison for building a winning team is not piles of manure.
Now, as someone who has argued that the M's definitely should not start four rookies at the same time and expect them to carry the lineup while also breaking into MLB, I can get behind bringing in a bona fide veteran starting catcher. That's just smart, to me. I'm just not sold on bringing in a guy who will be fighting the park profile every game you bring him out there. We've all seen how discouraged some players can get at Safeco, and it ain't pretty. I've gotta admit I'm looking at this through Beltre-and-Lopez colored glasses. In my mind, it's possible Olivo hits .210 / .241 / .387 here. If he does, how do we look at it then?