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The problem with projecting W totals through WAR is that its near impossible to get accurate measures on every player through the roster.
Things like RRS happen. On the flipside, things like Carlos Gonzalez can happen.
The bench/scrubs are very unpredictable as well.
LL just did a WAR projection that has us winning 81+ games next year. You go down the the list player by player and its hard to disagree too strongly (expect for maybe a few). The problem is that its impossible to be accurate with so many players involved.
Your "gut" is almost a better way of projecting Win totals than analysis through WAR or projecting Ws based on improvements/downgrades from a previous season.