I think Pineda will do well, but even Felix had several years where his results didn't quite match his talent. Not everybody is Francisco Liriano off the bat (though Pineda is as good a bet to be as anyone).
For sure there are no guarantees with a rookie SP. You know and I know that there are any number of ballyhoo'ed Ervin Santanas who are still running 5.50 ERA's in year 3...
Agree that Swamp-Thing is a roll of the dice, as to whether he's a top-10 starter vs. top-25 starter ... will be interesting to see where he goes in expert roto drafts, after he picks up the 3 slot out of ST...
That said, the difference here is the command within the strike zone... for what my rep's worth, put me down for a big Pineda splash in April 2011...
:daps: