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I hear you, as to the downside with Felix.  I mean, scenario A, he earns $30; scenario B, he gets hurt or something, right? 
You hate to spend where there's a 70% chance of breaking even and a 30% chance of losing big money...
Just the same, if Felix is there in the middle of the first round, and it's your turn, it's not like you can pass him, right...

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