With Fister, yes, he has a .295 BABIP in his 232 innings. Is that a better measure for what to "expect" in the future? It's a legit question - and there's as much art to science in the answer.
But ... with young pitchers, the ebb and flow is VERY hard to read. So, I think you need to look how the parts work TOGETHER. So, my mathematical take on Fister and his BABIP journey.
Ya. The older I get, the less I buy the idea that there's a "correct" forecast on a question like this.
But, the H/9 were CONSISTENTLY above what the other pitchers were throwing on his team. And, his final 106 AAA innings showed his WORST H/9 (11.2) of his minor league career.
Right, just as he was running the impossible 7:1 control ratios.
Which is why your point is so well taken, the connection between "not being wild enough" and the good swings that batters get. Sometimes pitchers can be too reliable in their location...
I have little reason to believe that Seattle will not destroy Fister in much the same way they managed to destroy Silva. Even with the new management, I still get the sense that the organization on the whole is one of the least malleable in all of baseball.
Yup.
The Silva comp is a bit disconcerting here :- ) ... his FIP went from 5.97 his last year here, to 3.75 the moment he got to pitcher haven Wrigley Field.
Wayyyy too many ex-Mariners pulling the Olivos, Silvas, Beltres and Guillens the very first games they play outside the org. Maybe they need to hire Ozzie to manage?