Pineda = Good Health Risk
Q. In January, where is SSI on Pineda's injury risk?
A. Funny thing: we just read a coupla more studies on that, once again debunking "IP increase from Y1 to Y2" theory. We gotta post that pretty quick here.
Deltas on IP, Y1 to Y2, became a fad for a while -- and that began at BaseballHQ.com. HQ has recanted, based on facts and figures. I concur.
Like Earl always said, it isn't innings that injure a pitcher. It's throwing after his mechanics have come apart via fatigue.
But we'll document that in a few days, hopefully. ... It's fine to play Guess Along With Dr. D on the mechanics, but let's keep the mechanics as 10%, 20% of the chatter on a pitcher's health projection -- the more so since none of us know much about it.
Here is the D-O-V article blowing off the consensus that Lincecum would of course get hurt and real quick don'cha know, and the article was based on our review of these seven injury factors as they applied to Lincecum:
1) Velocity (higher velo = less health risk)
2) Workload (more pitches under strain = more health risk)
3) History (proven ability to handle workload without stiffness = less health risk; see Matsuzaka)
4) Pitching mechanics
5) Shape of pitches (sideways-breaking pitches torque elbow ligaments; vertical pitches are easy on elbow)
6) Body shape (longer, whippier, more centrifugal motions = less health risk)
7) Pitcher age and handedness (older = less health risk; LH = less health risk)
How do these apply to Pineda?
- Velo = massively in favor of Pineda's health
- Workload = see above
- History = above average (there is the MILD elbow history in 2009)
- Mechanics = let's play guess-along, but SSI is fine with them
- Shape = perfect, no tilted pitches, relies on straight (non-torqued) FB
- Body Shape = Huge plus, both in mass and in looseness of arm
- Age & Handedness = a negative for Pineda, and the only real source of worry
Summary: Michael Pineda, logically, is a much better health risk than most early-20's pitchers. Primarily because he's huge and throws 97.
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Pineda was fine, all through 2010, and his mechanics, though unconventional, look fine to me. The number one risk factor for injury is speed of fastball: the faster it is, the healthier you project a kid to be. (Think Felix, Clemens, Seaver, Schilling, Ryan, Unit...) .
We're getting a leeeetle too caught up in guessing about pitching mechanics, and forgetting this is a Lou Piniella "Big Strong Thoroughbred" who throws 97 mph.
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Bill James pioneered the idea of using sabermetrics to guess at pitcher health. He complained, wryly, "For baseball fans to not notice that pitchers with strikeouts tend to stay healthier, would be like basketball fans not noticing that NBA players tend to be tall."
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Q. Leaving Pineda where?
A. Ask us on March 25th. At that time, everybody will have forgotten all this chatter and will be joining in the celebration.
Pineda isn't a dude to wring your hands over. He's a dude to celebrate.
Hey, I remember the days when the big winter prospect was Jim Maler :- )
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Cheers,
Dr D