HQ's 'Statistically Scouted Speed' - A Better Roto Mousetrap
=== Hey Lookee Here Dept. ===
As a rule, we're not fans of co-opting great stats. Lot of times, a guy will (1) take a perfectly good stat like EqA, which is already well-understood and well-grasped, --- > (2) put a minor tweak on it "for extra precision", ---- > scale it to (say) OBP rather than AVG, and --- > elbow the old stat out of the way. Look what I invented!
"Happy Birthday to You ...was created for ya... Now we'll try to stay blind ... two stats will be as one... hey child, stay wilder than the wind ..... who do you need, who do you love, when ya come undone."
SSI, of course :- )
But some stats do kick the soccer ball a worthwhile distance towards the 18-yard box. HQ just did this with Speed Score.
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=== Statistically Scouted Speed = PREDICTING Stolen Base Bustouts ===
As HQ points out (p. 62, 2011 Forecaster), if yer a roto champ who wants to predict a player about to bust out with a bunch of SB's, SX doesn't help much. Its component stats begin with those guys who are running a lot already.
Is there any way to say, "Hey, Franklin Gutierrez 2009 isn't stealing many bases, but he's fast enough to do so --- > when he's ready to do so?"
So HQ wanted a different speed score, one independent of SB attempts, and independent of SB success rate. ::brilliant!guinness::
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=== Physical Speed ===
In developing a new-n-improved speed metric, HQ started with physical speed reports "for over 400 top prospects of the past decade." In other words, they compiled everybody's home-to-first time, which is between 3.9 to 4.5 seconds unless you're Ichiro, Cool Papa Bell or Dr. D.
HQ adjusted for LH/RH time to 1B, and they asked which "effective baseball speed" events hook up well with those home-to-first times.
If you are a super fast player, does that correlate well with your hitting into double plays? The answer might surprise you. See below the sigline. (We'll give you a hint: the answer's NO.)
If you can carry the mail, does that correlate well with SB%? Does physical speed tell you how often a guy is going to be safe? Not that well: CORR = 0.44.
If you can pick 'em up and lay 'em down, what DOES that correlate best with? ... wait for it ... Stolen Base ATTEMPT rate. (CORR = 0.65.) Imagine dat. You can tell the track stars by asking, "which guys have the green light?"
::brilliant!guinness::
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