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Using your SPD list, what were the UZR/150 for these guys?
Peter Bourjos, CF - 173 -- 44.7 (#1 - by non-qualifier)
Michael Bourn, CF - 171 -- 18.5 (#1 by wide margin)
Austin Jackson, CF - 160 -- 5.9 (#7 among qualifiers)
Dexter Fowler, CF - 152 -- (-3.7) (#14 among qualifiers)
Cameron Maybin, CF - 152 -- (-4.4)
Brett Gardner, CF/LF - 151 -- (27.9 - most as LF)
Ichiro, RF - 148 -- (14.8 - most of RF)
Gutierrez - ??? -- (6.8) - #4 among CFs
So, the top two guys on the list definitely seem to support the speed rules CF mindset.
But, the Yankees go with Granderson over Gardner in CF, screwing up the analysis slightly. But, then you get Maybin and Fowler with negative UZR/150 scores, mucking things up.
The data suggests the fastest CFs are the best CFs. BUT, it also suggests "something" other than speed has the ability to completely destroy defensive performance, despite track speed.
Ichiro, in Safeco, in 2007, for a full season, managed a 4.8 UZR/150. In his partial '06 and '08 seasons, he ran low double digits, (not even close to the Gutz 2009 outlier).
I'm no huge fan of UZR - but it's the best we've got at the moment, so if we KNOW that Ichiro is not only really fast (or was in 2007), AND we know he is a leader in reading ball off bat and running routes, (as his RF UZR figures indicate), then why didn't Ichiro produce a 'silly' number in his full 2007 season, if in fact, the Safeco Effect is inflating CF stats significantly?
As for "jump" -- I'll go back to my foundation principle of defensive ENGAGEMENT. Yes, "physically", every MLB CF has the capacity to get a good jump. But, over the course of 162 games, 35-40 batters per night, 4 pitches per batter, what percentage of time is each CF *really* paying attention?
Is he paying attention to the catcher position (in or away) and preparing to break appropriately when the pitcher goes into his windup? My best guess is that those speedy guys with bad UZRs are (on occasion), day dreaming about which restaurant they're heading to after the game - or contemplating new pickup lines for the the next Baseball Annie.
You ask me about Andruw? I'll suggest his defense didn't suffer because he lost a step or he put on weight. It suffered because in the midst of the steroid peak, he was spending more mental effort in CF contemplating his next AB than on the next pitch thrown to the guy at the plate.