I do think mental weakness, emotional insecurity whatever you'd like to call it is a big deal. Chone Figgins shouldn't have had a huge park effect but tanked in the first three months of a new situation with a lot of other stressers.
But when Beltre got to this park, we were treated to stories about how downtrodden he'd get when he hit a ball on the screws in early April, in the cold damp air, and how he'd start a home run hop only to see it die on the warning track. We had stories from Cirillo doubting his ability to ever hit again, and watched the arguments between him and Sweet Lou. Beltre might be insecure and Cirillo was hugely self-critical, but seeing it happen and having newspapermen do interviews where they recount clubhouse stories of what was going on as it was happening don't help us shake the "Safeco murders the confidence of right-handers" mentality.
And it's not just marginal guys. Alex Rodriguez hit 15 more HR on the road than at home in 2000, and had 84 more points of batting average. I remember him making "that shoulda been a HR" face several times that year, and he complained about the park. When one of the greatest RH hitters ever tells you he hates your park, then the park might be an issue and maybe the fans aren't just "making it up."
In the entire history of the park, there haven't been that many right-handers who hit well here. Edgar did well...and he still lost 100 points off his Kingdome marks. It was the tail end of his career, so it makes sense, but he wasn't trying to clear fences either. He took what was given to him.
Boone was also good here, thanks to steroids and choking up on the bat to quit swinging for the fences with 2 strikes and just trying to put the ball in play.
Carlos Guillen IIRC was decent here, or at least not huge on the road compared to his Safeco numbers. But he was a switch-hitter who also blossomed the second he left. That had a little something to do with us blaming him for Freddy's drinking and screwing up his TB diagnosis, thus nearly killing him. Can't blame that one on the park, but the fact that he blossomed the second he got out of our organization puts another question mark out there.
There is just a pile of bodies 10 feet high around the Safe of RH hitters. For every Jose Guillen, who came into the park and survived (dropped 50 OPS points at home, but since it's a pitcher's park that's to be expected, and his HR stayed even) there are two or three that didn't.
The guys building the team are so afraid of RH bats here now that they pissed off the Yankees by not trading for the best RH hitter in the minors with their Cliff Lee chip. We'll only "risk" a RH bat at a glove position.
I agree with you that being mentally weak is the component that the Park factor exacerbates. But does the park help cause that weakness in the first place?
Mike Cameron hated Safeco. HATED it. He fought through it, but it was winning. We'd painted the wall, put up trees, made that honeycomb thing out there, all trying to help the batters see the ball. I don't know if seeing the ball was the problem or not in the beginning, but Cammy crushed the ball on the road, and would wilt visibly at home trying to play the same game.
If a guy is OPSing in the .900s on the road and in the .600s at home, something is wrong. Safeco started to train him, though, and he started dragging his Safeco averages up a tick...while his road averages dropped. He stopped swinging for the fences on the road as well. The park was killing his game (or at least that's how it felt watching him), causing him to hold back on his power for fear it wouldn't be enough.
I think it's watching what happened to Cameron that's causing the Guti questions. We saw what happened when the park got into his head enough that he had to take away the risk/reward of his away game so as not to be completely inept at home.
Maybe it won't happen to Franklin. Maybe he can keep it together and keep hitting those power shots over the fence. So far he seems Guillen-like to me (Carlos or Jose, take your pick).
And I still think he would blossom immediately upon leaving the Mariners, and that you would claim that wasn't related to the park either.
And maybe it wouldn't be. But when the franchise is running from RH bats, and the RH bats that have played here, be they Hall of Famers or journeyman, have complained about the park, it might be an issue. Or at least people that play at the park and employ those players believe it is.
Which makes it hard for us as fans to believe otherwise.
~G
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