MOST hitters - whether they move or not, tend to bounce back after a horrid season, unless they have aged out.
Honestly - here's my question. Other than Richie Sexson, (who did NOT go on to hit decently elsewhere) - how many right-hand hitters have seen their offense plunge 'significantly' - (the safeco killer effect) for MORE than a single season - say 550 ABs?
What is the actual sample set of players ALLOWED to return after a well-below-standard season?
No one is arguing that Safeco isn't a pitcher's park. Yes, the Safe will cost a player ... what, 50 points of OPS *AT HOME*. That translates to a 25 point reduction in OPS, with 1/2 the games being away from the Safe.
Cameron played 4 full seasons in the Safe - with a career year in his 2nd. He showed NO long-term detrimental effect from playing in Safeco, (and the highest hitter suppression seasons were actually years 1-3). His final OPS+ was 108, his first with the Mets 104. He had one more "career year" at age 33 - which was still two points of OPS+ under his career year in Seattle.
Yes, Cirillo was awful in Seattle. But, his 33 games in 2004 with San Diego, he had an OPS two points WORSE than his final season in Seattle. Sample size makes the analysis bogus - but Cirillo did not "instantly" start hitting after leaving Seattle. (And, of course, coming from Coors to Safeco is about the most extreme example of park sloth I can fathom). Even at that, Cirillo only got 700 ABs before he was gone.
Heck, in Beltre's FIRST season, he was dreadful. He then got BETTER after spending a year in hitting hell.
Do, I expect Lopez to have a great season? In COORS?!? Of course. But, I'd expect ANY hitter, (right, left or switch), to hit better in Coors. I also expect any hitter under the age of about 34 to bounce back after a bad season. I dominated an expert fantasy league by stealing the bounce-back guys in later rounds.
You don't have to leave Boston to see an example -- Mike Lowell, the guy Beltre replaced, gets added as a salary-dump throw-in after posting a 77 OPS+ at age 31. Everyone and their brother was screaming 'pharmacy' and nobody wanted to touch him. He posts .798+ OPS figures the next four seasons. And at age 36, he falls off the table. NOT a smart bet for a bounce-back this time.
The problem is you can NEVER know what would've happened if a player had stayed (or moved).
However, I completely understand why any player who REALLY sucked while playing in Seattle would say very publically that "the park did it". It's in their best interest to do so - and human nature to place blame elsewhere when we can. I expect players to blame parks the way I expect politicians to blame the opposition party. That's just the way it is.
Did Safeco kill Johjima? He hit .609 at age 32 - a 63 OPS+ after two years at 100. He bounced to .702 (87) in his final 250 ABs. Does that prove your point or mine, Doc? He lost 40 points off his OPS+ and then gained 25 back, in part time play, while injured, while at the age that most catchers tend to begin aging out.
In many ways, Lopez line matches up with Johjima's. Except Lopez was only 26 this year. NOT aging out. If he remained - and was healthy - I believe a 100 OPS+ could easily be the result. But, there's no way to know. I would suspect that the tendency for horrid year transfers to do a bit better than stay-put bounce-back guys. The change of scenery can help, of course. But, I would suspect if someone did a study of 50 guys with career disaster years (before age is a major issue), you'd see fairly similar results, regardless of which teams were involved.
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