Sorry, Doc ... on Beltre, I'm afraid you've gone down the "find data to prove my thesis" rabbit hole, instead of looking at ALL the data.
When in doubt about the impact of a HOME field - what is the obvious solution. Look ONLY at "AWAY" numbers.
Here are the ROAD numbers for Beltre in 2009 and 2010:
2009: .279/.324/.393 (.717)
2010: .327/.370/.583 (.953)
Note: In 2009, Beltre hit 71 points worse at home. In 2010, Beltre hit 72 points worse *AT HOME*.
While everyone is sitting back ASSUMING that Beltre got some massive boost from Fenway, the truth is ... he hit exactly as bad at home (in relation to road) playing in Boston in 2010 as he did playing in Seattle in 2009. If injury was NOT the issue with Beltre in 2009, then one would expect his ROAD batting line to at least be on the same continent. Heck, it's not even in the same hemisphere.
It's also disappointing to see you chop off his slugging progression to only include the years that support your conclusion, while leaving out the .413 and .462 slugging from years one and two. Prior to 2009, his career slugging was .459. That makes the 2009 season a massive outlier, and the year 2,3,4 performance looks REMARKABLY stable.
For '06 to '08, you've got a .792 -- .802 -- .784 sequence of OPS figures. That's mind-boggling consistent. That's 450 games of stable, reliable, almost robotic performance, where his 2008 numbers are actually the second BEST season he had in Seattle, (by OPS+), which adjusts for offense dropping league-wide.
Yet, your perception is that after 450 games of rock-steady production, in 2009, Beltre got depressed about the park?!?
The problem with the "Blame Safeco" perception is that it obliterates the club and players EVER taking responsibility for their performance. Lopez had a lousy 2010, so the mass opinion is "the PARK killed him".
People in parks in other LEAGUES have career bad years all the time. It happens. And yes, depression can play a role, (I'd be depressed too, having to play for an organization as inept at player development as Seattle). But, JUST LIKE GRIFFEY, the "emotional" reset of moving almost certainly played a role in Beltre having another career year. He's an .837 career ROAD hitter, who had a .953 ROAD OPS in 2010.
But, if everyone, (club and fans), continues to blame the park for every right-hand hitter having a poor season, then the club will never fix the actual problem, and the fans will never actually get to see a bounce-back year.
Me? I think the park had ZERO to do with Gutz bad 2010 -- and the clubhouse implosion and year-killing Nap-Gate episodes eventually caused everyone except Ichiro to swirl down the porceline.
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