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Taro's picture

Beltre was clearly a really bad fit for the park, but I think its a bit overblown. I think Beltre was probably on steroids in '04 and '10 was a legitimately great season boosted by luck/park.
'10 was significanly higher than his career BABIP and power slightly inflated at Fenway (but not rediculously so).
Beltre hit 25 HRs three seasons in a row in Safeco and hit 28 in Fenway last year. The doubles were the biggest help. Those long flyballs are outs in Safeco so part of the BABIP spike is probably legitimate.
Beltre is likely a neutral park low 800s OPS guy that Safeco turned into a 790 OPS type. Hes in a hitter's park with Texas now, but I'd bet on an OPS around 82-830 ish.

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