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I think I'm actually in agreement with you on the exact order of that top 5, and with Purke and Starling having the highest likelihood of increasing their stock (for the very reasons you mentioned).
Unless there's significant movement in the top end player values, the #2 pick should really come down to Rendon, Cole, Starling, or Purke. There is enough frontline talent this year that you do not need to compromise on ceiling, or take a risk with someone like Gray or Jungmann.