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I just didn't put him in the top 5 -- yet.  I've been following him for awhile, and I'm aware of the upside.  I guess it's the combination of him being so raw, the top college players being so polished, and the need to buy him out of his football/baseball scholarship (Boras, again, of course) that makes me think he's unlikely to go to the Ms at #2.
Also, there was a quote from Z (somewhere on Churchill's site) where (without naming names) he said they were focused on an infielder, an outfielder and a handful of pitchers.  I assumed that meant Rendon, Springer and ColePurkeGrayBarnes etc.  It's possible, though, that he meant Starling instead of Springer.
I have Springer up there based considerably on Doc's warm recommendation, but I don't exclude the possibility of Starling passing him.
That being said, it increasingly looks like #2 might be Cole's to lose.  He's certainly doing everything that you want in a stud starter.

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