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I find it interesting that many people are talking about his time off as a detriment and wondering how he'll ever be the same pitcher.  Does anybody realize how raw his talent is?
The kid pitched in Canada.  He didn't have pro competition and the baseball season up there isn't the longest I've ever seen.  He's not some guy from Florida who plays 12 months a year.
He was incredibly raw when he went to college, and was just as raw in college.  His first full season as a starter is when he became a juggernaut with Ks and control, but he's still green as pistachio ice cream.
And now he's spent two years not throwing a lot. 
So what happens when a player without a lot of innings to refine his stuff takes an extended layoff and then comes back with a fresh arm?
Some high school guy named Tom Wilhelmsen had 17 starts in 2003, then was suspended in 2004, and retired in 2005.  He threw low 90s then, and is mid-to-high 90s now.  The arm wasn't a problem, and the rust was shaken off pretty quickly.
The Paxton we've seen threw 17 innings in 2007, 52 in 08, 78 in 09, and 18 in 2010.  I guarantee you he wasn't overworked in high school.
I don't know what Paxton can become, but he's certainly not tapping on the ceiling of all that potential at this point.  Everything he's done to get drafted in the (supplemental) first round has been done with very little high-quality instruction or innings pitched.  As you said, his control was mostly a matter of piping it down the plate and letting people flail or hit singles. 
We're gonna get to teach him how to pitch, and help him clear out the rust.
Once he does that...he could move fast.  Really fast.  I don't expect it, but he could very well be in the bigs in 2 years.  A guy like Morrow was tougher to hit, but raw, untutored Paxton blew him away in control and Ks.  Neither guy had a strong history of starting or throwing lots of innings.  Morrow was a #5 in a strong pitching draft and has shown the stamina to start. I'd love to see Paxton do the same, without the several-year detour in the pen. 
We'll build Paxton up in innings soon enough.  The man has two weapons, and they should be all he needs.  I'm fascinated to see what he can do.  He'll probably be on the Wilhelmsen approach of "extended Spring Training, then Everett/Clinton/however far you can climb" with an eye toward AA and AAA next year.
~G