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G, I have teenage boys, and I wish they ever were that rational! :-)
I see an athlete with a strength-and-speed combo that's unusual in itself, but also great balance for a big guy (presumably also why folks are so excited about his power-hitting potential).
But frankly, I would see a 0% percent chance that his skill-set combo wouldn't play somewhere on an NFL field (QB, probably not, but you never know).  Hines Ward was a college QB; Brian Urlacher was a 6-foot-4 safety.  If he can be a non-head-case Josh Hamilton, why can't he be a non-head-case Jeremy Shockey?
On the other hand, there's still a very decent chance that he maxes out at the Tui level in baseball.  I mean, how do you know? He just looks like a football player to me.
And, the quarterback at Nebraska is the most famous human being in the state.  Every game is on national TV (literally).  The exposure value has to counterbalance the injury risk to some extent.
Like I said, I don't know what the likelihood is, and I don't doubt that the rational choice is baseball-only, but I think there is a much greater chance that Starling doesn't sign than any of the other potential picks.