HQ #13: Mauricio Robles, LHP
Spectator sez,
Solid outing from Wilhelmsen (Mar. 8); wobbly but unscored-upon outing from Robles
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Wilhelmsen's first fastball was 90, but he quickly got up to 93 and sat 93-95 the rest of his inning.
Struck out Eli Whiteside swinging on 93mph fastball.
Struck out Darren Ford looking on 76mph curve.
Got Miguel Tejada to ground out on 75mph curve.
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Robles started at 88 and never got over 91.
Got Aubrey Huff to ground out on 74mph slider.
Got Buster Posey to pop up on 83mph change.
Nate Schierholz doubled on 90mph fastball.
Thomas Neal walked on 4 pitches (not intentional).
Mike Fontenot walked on 4 pitches. Bases loaded.
Threw two balls to Ryan Rohlinger before strking him out swinging on 90mph fastball.
It is interesting you bring that up Spec, because the HQ scouts see Robles as a completely different kind of starting pitcher than we do. Their book can be ordered here.
They see him as a 88-91 guy for his career, and a guy who has a very high chance of being a 100 ERA+ innings-eating starter in the bigs, as opposed to having a 30% chance of becoming a Scott Kazmir type.
Their paradigm is so radically different from ours that I folded over the handrail and flipped onto my head when I saw it...
Am not saying that HQ's take is gospel, obviously, but when somebody good says something truly strange, then --- > it is sometimes an opportunity to turn a light bulb on.
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In this case, we'll give HQ's comment unedited:
FB +++ (87-95)
CB +++ (81-85)
CU +++ (76-87)
Potential: #4 starter
Arrival: 2012
Grade: 7A (Average regular, 90% probability)
Short/powerful lefty who has benefitted from deep repertoire that induces weak contact.
Can pitch off hard FB to set up decent CB and CU. Can register K's with curve, and has added cutter to arsenal.
Lacks frontline size and stuff, but has high probability of success. Can struggle with flyballs.
The vast majority of the time, HQ synchs with our local discoveries about M's farmhands - e.g. Cortes' delivery, Nick Franklin needing to bat LH, etc -- that to see a profile so weirdly divergent is odd.
That said, it is interesting to re-evaluate Robles more in the Dallas Braden template than in the Brett Anderson template.
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HQ has Robles as only #13 within the M's own org, as opposed to the #4-6 that he's routinely seen elsewhere... this undoubtedly reflects their buying in to the stamina questions.
If the Mariners ever get Robles to planting his lead foot on the 3B side of the centerline when he lands, we may find out who's right about Robles' fastball - whether it's a bread-and-butter setup pitch for a 30/30/30 John Smiley type, or whether it's a gamebreaking weapon in the Anderson, Kazmir mold.
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Cheerio,
Dr D