First off, I'm no great expert, I just do this because Doc invited me to.
My sense is that, at least during this transition, college ball has gone from ridiculously pro-hitter to ridiculously pro-pitcher. It looks like the NCAA won't have national stats until later this week, so we'll see.
Longoria and Zimmerman didn't rake HR in college with the old, spring-loaded bats -- Longoria maxed at 11 and Zimmerman a whopping 6. Mark Teixeira had a monster college season at age 21 and only maxed out at 18 HR.
Rendon's already had seasons of 20 and 26 (old bats). In other words, Poythress power but with defense and eye ratio (2nd in the nation in HR and 2nd in walks last year).
This year, he has fewer XBH, but he's actually added patience -- he's on pace for like 70+ walks. So everyone is probably being more careful, but Rendon's excellent eye is letting him get on base despite everything. To me, that just says he's adjusting, not that his power is illusory.
Stature is not huge, but his coach says he has "Hank Aaron wrists" -- Hank was listed at 6-0, 180.
Here's a quote:
The foundation of Rendon's offensive game is an innate ability to wait for his pitch.
"That's not something you teach," Rice hitting coach Mike Taylor said. "And Anthony's got supreme hand-eye coordination for this level, something I think he can take to the next level. He's also got the ability to keep his hands back and flick his wrists through the zone. I've been here 11 years, and the only hitter I've seen comparable through these ranks was Teixeira."
I think the Z-crew knows they need at least one big RH bat, and they also know that ordinary-talent RH bats disappear into Safeco purgatory -- so they need someone who can approach Edgar-level skills. That's a tall order, but Rendon looks like their best chance to do it at a reasonable price, and I don't think they'd let him slide unless they're totally convinced he's damaged goods due to injuries.