Is the "Up" Elevator Getting Crowded?
It was just weeks ago that the Mariners upper-shelf prospect list looked like this:
1/1A. Dustin Ackley
1/1A. Michael Pineda
3. Nick Franklin
4. Ummmmm ... *long pause* ... Taijuan Walker?
There were plenty of lists, but there was total consensus on the Top 3 and then total disagreement on how to weigh toolsy teens who were a looooong way off vs. those closer to the majors but seemingly lacking rock-solid MLB prospect status.
Well, a lot has changed in a few weeks, and most of it (sorry, Mauricio Robles and Dan Cortes) for the better.
James Paxton. Except for a brief stint in independent league, Paxton hadn't pitched "for real" since 2009, so no one knew what to expect when he finally signed a contract. What they got was 96-mph fastballs, apparent command of his other pitches, and glowing praise from Doc for his mechanics.
Especially with Robles undergoing elbow surgery, Paxton rockets to the top of the pitchers-not-named-Pineda list.
Gerrit Cole/Anthony Rendon. Cole has been outstanding for UCLA so far in the college season. He's still lighting up the radar gun -- as he has since high school -- but he's been more efficient, pitching deep into games with low pitch counts and significantly cutting down on walks. And, his changeup is reportedly becoming a plus pitch. In addition, he seems to be showing some maturity that was supposedly lacking when he was a teen prospect.
With Cole moving up the scale, the #2 pick has moved from a "settle for" to a "get to" pick -- as in, we "get to" pick whomever the Pirates pass over. Some of the shine is off Rendon, but he's still exactly the uber-skilled RH bat at 3b that would fit right into the Mariners' needs. And Jim Callis of Baseball America says he would rank either Rendon or Cole ahead of both Ackley and Pineda (FWIW).
Jose Vicente Campos & Taijuan Walker. These two 18-year-old righties were born two weeks apart in 1992. Both are listed at 6-4, 195. Both can bring it in the mid-90s and up, with intriguing offspeed stuff. They'll be a fascinating pair to watch rise through the system.
Maybe someone should have wondered back in February why Walker got all the love and not Campos -- oh, wait . . . maybe somebody did :-), but now it's fair to wonder why Campos is getting buzz and not Walker. Regardless, two chances at the next Pineda is way better than one.
Ji-Man Choi at C. Choi hits and hits and hits, but even Ackley wouldn't be considered rock-solid at 1b only. And, in the tradition of Ackley-to-2b, it looks like they're going to give Choi a shot at catching. At a glove position, Choi zooms up to top-10 status.
Carlos Triunfel. At least in his non-pay section, Churchill reports Triunfel is fully healthy and in great shape, but still making fundamental mistakes. His age-19 season was lost to injury and his age-20 season was enough of a regression to drop him from top-5 to second-10 status, but the age-18 season in high A with 32 XBH, 30 SB and 30 walks/52 strikeouts is still lurking out there, and he's still just 21. Still worth watching to see if he can get his stuff together.
Josh Lueke & Tom Wilhelmsen. Don't need to go through these stories over again, but I had both of them a lot higher than they were on any of the official lists. Based on spring results, they both look like the real deal. They could end up being the saving grace of what could be a very thin bullpen. Now, watch them go out and crater like Cortes did [-- except I think the chance of Lueke failing (or re-offending) is pretty small].
Steve Baron. Dropped like a rock on any charts that he had been on in the first place after stinking up the batter's box in his first two professional efforts. Then he gets a shot at big-league camp just as a warm body with catching gear, and what does he do? He actually hits. We don't know yet if it means anything, but he's probably earned a chance to prove he wasn't a colossal mistake.