... of any kind, in the pen.
IMO, the rotation could be something special (Bedard healthy and Pineda not suffering too much of a rookie adjustment period). As I noted last April - I think Fister is Silva/HoRam all over, (better control, but less 'stuff' -- shudder), and I'll be surprised if he lasts past May this year. But, Pauley or French as a replacement is more than reasonable for a #5.
I fear the pen could be a complete meltdown - the kind that can destroy an entire team morale in a couple of weeks. Honestly, in looking at the ST stats - of the relievers with more than 3 innings, Jamey Wright may well have pitched the best overall. Does anyone really want to reach June going -- "Yeah, I guess Jamey Wright IS the best guy in the pen."?
Last year, after League and Aardsma, OLSON was the best bullpen arm in 2010. With Aardsma out, if League regresses, even a little ...
While the "mathematical" importance of a closer may be small -- I think the value of that "lock down" 9th inning guy can be crucial to allowing an entire bullpen to function to their maximum potential. I don't see any guy on the Ms roster that I think is that guy. That dynamic holds a lot of risk. I don't think there's enough talent, or enough ... gumption.
I think the combined loss (over time) of Soriano, Sherrill, EOF, Putz, Lowe and Kelley was simply too fast for the bullpen production line to refill. The 4.23 bullpen ERA from 2010 was bad. I think a 4.50+ is a likely outcome for the current bullpen, (which is even worse when you consider that includes the plusses of Safeco and a plus defense).
Of course, if Gutz is sidelined for long, ERAs could rise across the board.
I hope I'm wrong. Bullpens are very hard to read.
New Manager - no Griffey distraction - Bedard back - Pineda on board ... lots of reasons to expect a 5-10 improvement for 2011. But, if there is a keystone that can fail and induce a repeat of 2010, IMO, it is the bullpen.
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