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Teixeira has averaged 37 HR per 162 games, including 38 in his age/experience equivalent season to Smoak's 2011. Looking to me like 25-30 HR power from Smoak is a lot more likely than 35-40, and then Safeco will steal a handful each year as well.
My comp would be Lance Berkman. Little bit better average than Teix (which I'm also expecting from Smoak). Edgarian, instead of simply above-average, walk ratios. Also a switch-hitter (and a natural lefty, unlike Teix). Berkman did have a couple big HR years as well, but I think most assume he might have gotten a little help there.
The one difference might be that Berkman had about average speed. I notice Smoak has exactly 1 triple and 1 SB attempt in about 1200 pro plate appearances. Haven't read enough to know; is he someone who simply ignores the speed game, or is he likely going to be among the slowest everyday players in the AL? Slowest in the AL might be another nod towards the Teix comp.
Not that it matters, but the draft position mentioned for Smoak is inaccurate. He went 11th, not #7 overall.
Smoak and Pineda are the two reasons I'm interested in the (Major League) M's 2011 season. I think we end up nowhere close to the playoffs, and I think Ackley's going to be spending a bit more time at AAA than people expect. Smoak could be the MOTO bat, Pineda could be a TOR SP. I can really see the M's effort next offseason being almost directly determined by whether Smoak/Pineda can claim those titles.