The Pedro Light Bulb Goes On
=== Scorched Earth Dept. ===
In the first inning today, Michael Pineda threw two changeups. These turned on a particular light bulb that Dr. D had always felt bad about having dark.
Pedro Martinez, in his age-28 season, ran an ERA+ that read, on b-ref.com, 291. Pedro's ERA was 1.74, in a golden-age offensive season that saw many, many players hit 40+ homers.
The best ERA in the AL, other than Pedro's, was 3.70 by Roger Clemens. Only four pitchers were under 4.00, and here Pedro was at 1.74 -- an ERA that would have been terrific in 1912.
Pedro's 1.74 ERA also occurred in Fenway Park, where Nomar Garciaparra batted .372 with 51 doubles and 21 homers.
Pedro's WAR was 10.1 -- the highest total in the AL, other than his, was 5.6 by Brad Radke.
And this was not an isolated incident. Pedro's ERA+ averaged over 200 for seven consecutive years.
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=== Dissecting the Captured Alien Dept. ===
I've never understood why, either on a sabermetric level or on a scouting level. Fine: he struck out 10-11 men a game. Why does that make his ERA half of Roger Clemens'?
On a scouting level, the one guy who might have helped me, Bill James, had an uncharacteristically weak answer. "Pedro just does everything 10% better than everybody else, and the effect accumulates. It's a critical mass issue." I knew that couldn't be right...
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=== Eureka! Dept. ===
Coming from a Greek expression in which Archimedes or Romeo or Cyclops or somebody got in the tub, figured out volume by displacement, and ran naked down the street shouting "I have found it" from the Greek "heurisko"...
Friday, Michael Pineda threw two pitches that unlocked the mystery that used to be Pedro Martinez.
.........
Second hitter of the game, lefty Daric Barton, with an 0-1 count, Michael Pineda threw a vicious straight change that left Barton deer-in-the-headlights. It fell below the zone for a 1-1 count.
The next two pitches were pointless. Fastball 96, Barton didn't even flinch, called strike 1-2.
Slider high, right down the middle, Barton didn't even flinch, turned and walked away, strike three.
.........
Third hitter of the game, David DeJesus, 1-1 count, Pineda threw another straight change.
He not only struck DeJesus out,* but Pineda also struck the umpire out -- see pitch 3 above.
We kid you not: neither the umpire nor DeJesus could process the pitch. We've seen this happen occasionally over the years: a pitcher throws a ball right down the middle and neither the batter nor the ump process it.
(The fifth pitch, a slider on the hands, DeJesus fought off for a 3-bounce grounder that had eyes and went up the middle for a scratch single.)
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=== Thank You Michael ===
It suddenly occurred: Like Michael Pineda in the '010's, like Curt Schilling in the '00's, Pedro Martinez in the '90's could throw a high-90's fastball located.
(The only other guy I recall, who threw 94-98 with real good command, was the young Bartolo Colon -- like Schilling, Colon wasn't much for offspeed stuff either.)
When Pedro threw his overhand yakker, or his fadeaway change, those pitches were overkill. His 96 mph with command -- THAT was the element that gave Pedro the game before it started, and the secondary pitches just made it a turkey shoot.
Schilling never had much in the way of secondary stuff, but if he had, he'd have made jokes out of MLB games much like Pedro did.
I never quite got it, about Pedro's 96 into a teacup, why that would strike Jay Buhner out in every AB. But finally I get the 1998 Pedro Martinez. The batters, being prideful MLB'ers, were always looking fastball first, couldn't do anything with that even if they got it, and ...
You can only ask so much of a human being. Fighting off located 97 fastballs, moving unpredictably around the strike zone --- > that max'ed the batter's attention out. Anything added to that, and you've got a broken game.
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BABVA,
Dr D