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Of course, the initial question is when/if Guti returns.  As of this instant, I'd say the odds of Guti coming back soon enough to turn the defense around are 'questionable'.  I'd say the odds of Guti coming back and performing at 100% are also questionable.  And THAT leads to its own game of Jenga ... if Guti does get the call ... who goes?  Except for Saunders, (I'm thinking he's got an option year left), I don't think the Ms have a real good shot at holding onto anyone else ... which means you either DFA Langerhans or Cust or maybe even Bradley.  But, whoever it is ... if they walk (or are scooped up) ... and THEN Guti hits .096 and plays center like Ryan ... (or maybe he's fine for 30 days and then ends up back at the Mayo) ... then what?
Between guys like you, Doc, Taro, G_Money ... (I could go on) ... there are a WHOLE lot of quality analysts around these parts.  What I think I bring to the mix is a (slightly) better ability to back up the emotional truck - and look at BOTH sides of the equation.  It's why I think I'm better off analyzing the Ms than trying this gig at a Braves' site.
That said -- the Ms have had a couple of BluesMobile-at-Dealy-Plaza collapses.  I've been trying to not only ask the question of why "then" - but also "how now?" 
This is one of the reasons I've been swimming against the tide (a bit) on Cust.  I don't see that the Ms have *ANY* option that has a measurable upside anywhere close to Cust.  I can see the dominos falling if you dump Cust and then have the 'wrong' injury follow. 
In truth, I agree that - "with the right breaks" - yes, this team could go .500.  This team beat .500 twice in the last 4 years with teams that had sub-.500 talent.  It does happen.  It could happen.  But, IMHO, a LOT of dominoes have to fall in the right direction for that to happen.  Getting a 100% Guti back would certainly be a shot in the arm -- and if they get him, (soon), the defense could get better.
But, the outlook in the infield is that when Ackley comes up - (which is deemed a CRITICAL thing going right for a positive outcome), then Wilson is gone and the MI becomes Ryan and Ackley.  Sorry, but I have little faith that Ryan/Ackley is going to be a top 4 MI *this* year.  I think LROD and Ackley is a likely much better offensive MI ... which leads back to a pick-your-poison decision to be made.
While I can see the scenario where Seattle goes .500 ... I can also see how fragile their current situation is ... and believe ONE wrong move at the wrong time could potentially derail the entire season.  IMO, the Johjima contract at the end of April killed one season.  I think the Griffey contract last year killed another. 
While I applaud the efforts Z has made to 'try' and exorcise the losing mentality of this organization, I still view this as a team of individuals with little "natural" bonding.  Figgins, Bradley, (even Jack Wilson this year) ... these are just the "obvious" land mines.  The club is STILL largely a group of guys paid to come and play in Seattle.  There's no "organizational" glue among the regulars at all.  The aggregate mental makeup from my armchair psychology couch is -- "mercenary".  THAT is not a good foundation to expect to build overachievement on top of.  People rail about the Yankee mercenary attitude - yet, the Yankees Jeter, Posada, Rivera trio just set a record for the first major sport trio to EVER play 17 seasons together.  The Yankees built their dynasty on a foundation of home grown talent.  Jeter, Posada and Rivera are *YANKEES* first ... MLBers second.
My original projection was 69 wins.  I'll stick to that for the time being.  But, Bedard staying healthy, Pineda avoiding "the wall" in the second half - Ackley coming up and being successful ... there are lots of things that could go right to beat that.  But, the margin for the Ms is VERY small -- so the list of things that can prevent them from reaching that 69 figure are also considerable.