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The Mariners have played 30 games now in 2011...they've scored 115 runs and allowed 126.
BUT...it's worth noting that they got absolutely pronked by two teams early in the season - Cleveland (now 20-8 and treating the AL like the AAAL), who outscored us 20-8 and Texas, who we played very tough despite them being a royal buzzsaw at the time (note carefully that injuries and the return of fair luck have returned Texas to Earth).
If you take out those two series...we're 14-10 and our pythag is 98-90 in 24 games.  That's 4.1 R/G and 3.8 RA/G, for those of your keeping score (*cough*Sandy*cough*)
If we allow 3.8 R/G all year...I think we'll have a good shot at .500, no?  Even if you assume we will continue to get periodically clobbered by the best teams in the AL while playing everyone else tight and winning some closer games...then I would submit that our ERA+ isn't as bad as it looks...and that our Pythag record will be misleading.