M's 2, Rangers 5 - From 90 OPS+ to 95. Right Now.
SLOPS TO THE LOST CHANCES AT 32/32 QUALITY STARTS - I was kind of hoping for a 23-4, 1.99 season with 32 quality starts. Reality sinks in and we may have to settle for something more like Justin Verlander's best season (19-9, 3.45). We kid ... probably.
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In this March 16th article, we gave our $0.02 as to why anybody would ever score runs on Michael Pineda. :- ) He threw 22 strikes to open the game that day, gave up four or five hard hits, and gave the false impression that he might be something other than a miracle.
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On May 4th, Michael again stuck his fingers too deep into the tiger's mouth -- simply getting too much of the plate, too often. I looked up at one time and he'd thrown 51 strikes and 8 balls, or something like that.
Sully had a great line. 'Most rookie pitchers have to learn to throw strikes. Pineda has to learn to throw balls,' or somesuch. Just so!
In the middle '70's, the Cliff Lee of the day was a guy named Frank Tanana. He used to say, "Man, my ERA would be zero-plus if I could just learn to stop throwing a strike every blinkin' pitch," or something like that.
We've seen the syndrome come up from time to time as super-pitchers develop an Achilles Complex that they don't need armor and shield. They are always around the plate, always in the strike zone, the hitters are always swinging, and once in a while the hitters square one up.
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Anyway. Pineda's first four starts, he showed a remarkably mature caution around the zone -- striking out only about 5-6 men per outing, but staying out of the middle of the plate.
Game five, he started playing with fire, striking out nine men in 6 innings but giving up some fly balls.
Game six, he got bit a little, ratcheting up a sick number of swinging strikes but getting stung for a couple of big flies.
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We don't say that Pineda's going to get tatered every time he challenges a hitter. :- ) His HR/game goes to what, 0.4 now?
We say only that when runs do score off Pineda, it's going to be because he's always around the plate and they're always swinging. It happened to Randy Johnson. The batters arm-swung and when they squared it up, Randy supplied the power and he'd give up 20 homers a year. It becomes a game of "let the big guy supply the power for you."
Pineda is a Game 7 starter, right now. SSI shudders to think what he'll be, once he gets some weather on him.
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PROPS TO C.J. WILSON who, a few years back, used to be a roto fave. Right now he's looking awfully Bedard'ish.
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SLOPS TO THE M'S 4-MAN BULLPEN. As Geoff Baker points out, the M's have let Ray, Wilhelmsen and Cortes/Lueke nowhere near the mound once they started winning.
He recommends bringing Aardsma up and dropping two RP's in the hope of increasing their usable relievers to five.
The other guys can't pitch in the majors, Lueke not yet anyway, and Tom Wilhelmsen is a starting pitcher. He needs work. They've got three guys in their pen that they believe are useless, so they should do something about it...
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PROPS TO THE M'S ROTATION which needs only a 5- or 6-man pen. Their five starters are averaging over 6 innings per game with a TTO of 160/60/14 in 30 games. They'll provide the seventh reliever themselves, thank you very much.
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PROPS TO THE M'S JUNIOR VARSITY. Want to know how to raise the M's OPS+ from 90 to 95 right now? Lemme show ya:
- 61 - OPS+, Jack Wilson
- 42 - Brendan Ryan
- 123 - Adam Kennedy
- 106 - Luis Rodriguez
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Take a ballgame in which a 100 OPS+ hitter is substituted for a 55 OPS+ hitter. That's 45 OPS+ points (I know, I know, save the quibbles; I know about the jobshare and the way the OPS+ scale works and all that. This is big-picture stuff).
Take your 45 OPS points and divide them by the 9 slots in the batting order. That's 5 points for the whole offense.
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We're just noodling, and there are 9,000 things sloppy about that math, but still. Whether you replace an average hitter with Mark Teixeira, or whether you replace a terrible hitter with an average one -- it is exactly the same thing. You are boosting your whole lineup by 5-8 OPS+ points.
Would you like to replace Milton Bradley with Adam Dunn? Bad example... would you like to replace Bradley with another Justin Smoak? You can do the same thing by replacing a glove-first utility infielder with a bat-first utility infielder.
If you could replace Bradley with Dunn free, of course you would. Why even hesitate to replace a very poor MI with one who can rake?
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Those OPS+ lines don't lie. Adam Kennedy and Luis Rodriguez (1) actually are hitters -- Kennedy always has been -- and (2) they are fitted to Safeco, brethren. Ryan and Wilson are glove specialists. You want offense?, simply play your bats at SS and 2B.
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Brendan Ryan isn't even helping the team defensively. He's -3 runs UZR. (I don't say he's not good. I say his glove is not impacting the game, yet, anyway. You're not losing anything you currently have to sub him out.)
Why is Brendan Ryan entitled to 155 games?! Earl used to pull Belanger when he needed runs.
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Why does Jack Wilson never play a game at short this year? Are they afraid he would ask to play a second one there? Do they have no emergency response plan if he does so? Did Scrapiron Stinson flush his SS glove down the john?
That's an important way to clear AB's for lefty hitters. Give them 30%, 40% of Ryan's AB's for the short term.
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Kennedy and Rodriguez are playing. A lot. Good on yer, Mr. Wedge. But they should play even more. Wilson-Kennedy one day, Ryan-Kennedy one day, Kennedy-LRod another day, and a lot of times those lefty bats will win a 1-run game for yer.
You lucked out and woke up with JV players who are better than your varsity? Well, nepotism is illogical, said Sarek.
If I were managing, either Kennedy or LRod would be in every day, and some days they'd both be in. Until I had a respectable offense.
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95, by the way, was the OPS+ the 2005 White Sox used to win the World Series.
From 90 to 95, right now.
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My $0.02,
Dr D