Add new comment

About 10 years ago I did a 'study' on relievers.  I went through every primary closer (all 30) for every club and took a gander at their blown saves.  What I found?
Almost every closer around tends to blow saves in bunches.  Rivera blew two recently, (I know this because he's on my fantasy team, and had I NOT known this fact, I would've been really afraid that he'd hit the age wall). 
Is this a reason not to swap out League?  Not really.  There isn't a 'magic' formula for blowing saves in consecutive appearances and determining a closer is 'done'.  BUT ... as much as I love Doc's analysis, it seems to me in this case, we are looking WAY too close at the bark while missing the 40 acres on fire.
League is NOT blowing saves due to pitch selection.  Doc noted that 100% of his saves recorded were while throwing these "100% predictable" patterns.
League is blowing saves for one simple reason.  And it's the reason 90% of saves are blown.  The pitcher is not EXECUTING his pitch.  I'm more than happy to listen to the conceptual strategies and tactics of pitch selection for SPs.  You have to face the same 9 guys 4 times ... you *HAVE* to be adaptive.
But, the vast majority of WORLD CLASS closers in the history of the game had *ONE* pitch.  The argument that Rivera blew two saves because hitters knew his cutter was coming is the exact same argument that LEague is blowing saves because they know the FB is coming. 
I think I can say with 100% certainty that when you plunk back-to-back hitters, the problem was NOT pitch "selection".  Whether League throws the FB down the pipe or throws his slider down the pipe ... the key piece of data is NOT "slider" or "fastball".  The key piece of data is "down-the-pipe".
And this is why closers tend to bunch their blown saves.  Because, just like all MLB players, closers "lose the groove" from time to time.  And for most, the 'doldrums' tend to hang around for 7-14 days.  How many saves blown is mostly a factor of save opportunities available during the triple-dip biorhythm.
Seattle is in a nasty quandary -- 4 pitchers ALL throwing great at the same time.  History says they are ALL due for a bad spell.  So, throwing Wright in could work.  Or, he could blow a couple, (which would get BLAMED on the change in job ... though he could just as easily melt down in the 6th).
Ultimately, the bullpen quartet went 38 team games before ANY allowed a HR.  That's frankly astounding.  But, it's also a warning sign, because even HoF closers give up about a HR a month. 
The one "long term" issue with regard to closer changes.  If your closer hook is "too quick" on the first guy, then you create the foundation that the next guy is going to be adding pressure to himself (beyond normal levels) as soon as he blows his first save.  Not helpful ... (but mostly a non-issue, since the best closers are neurotics who really dont' give a flip about stuff like that).
What would I do?  I'd stick with League -- (maybe skip one save situation, just as an extra day of rest thing - but don't remove him from the 'job') -- and hope he recovers and saves a few between now and the deadline.  Once upon a time, Aardsma was the #1 hope for a body that could be moved for more prospects.  At this point, League is a possible, *IF* he can prove that he can recover from this bump in the road.  I don't see any other BP arm having anything close to closer trade value.  GMs "like" hard throwing closer types for deadline bullpen upgrades, (even when shopping for 'setup' guys).