Add new comment

"... 89-90 yesterday, rather than 90-92, and the precision took Erik's game UP, not down ..."
And this, to me, sums up what I feel it the biggest flaw in pitcher scouting and rhetoric ... the fixation on MPH leads to instant dismissal (by most) of pitchers like say ... Vargas.  While the list 99 MPH "flame outs" is actually much longer than people realize.  (Rocker and Wohlers were two examples of flash and burn closers).
I think what gets missed in the big picture is that if you can CONTROL your pitches (location, location, location), you don't need triple-digit heat to dominate.  BUT, if you have the control of a guy who throws 88 *AND* you can throw 96 ... well, then you get Pineda results.
What I have long felt is that "some" of the hardest tossers actually throw the break out of their pitches, and the extra velocity only helps them against certain hitters, (the sterotypical slider-speed bats). 
There was a kid who pitched against the Mudcats last season (when I went to see Ackley) who hit 106 on the gun!!!  In case you're thinking the calibration was off, the other pitchers on the night were all low to mid 90s ... what you typically see in most AA games.  (I forget his name).  But, he had no control, and he had no movement.  His stats were pedestrian.
I know you think League needs to mix up his pitch "selection".  I think he needs more to mix up his pitch location.  But, I also wonder if League is simply "too" consistent with his velocity ... that it's not just that he's throwing his FB 100% in 'behind' scenarios ... but that he's throwing it low and away at exactly 95.5 mph.  I think you can change *ANY* of the variables, (location, speed or pitch type), and improve results.  I also think most successful hard throwers have some 'natural' movement on their FB ... and when they 'slump', it is often because (for whatever reason), they lose that subtle movement.
Rivera's cutter ... Hoffman's changeup ... hitters could go up looking for NOTHING but those pitches and still fail.  Per fangraphs, Rivera through his cutter 92.9% of the time for the 2009 season ... and had a 1.76 ERA and 44 saves.  Mind you, 2009 was also his career high in HRs allowed for the season (7). 
But, I really do love the concept that you CAN improve by lowering velocity ... in those cases where a pitcher is losing movement and/or control to generate that velocity.
But, I've often felt that Bedard needed to 'back off' just a hair ... as I think his injury problems have been aggravated by too much time spent at the fringe of his physical limits.  That concept of reaching back for a little more 'occasionally' rings true to me for most pitchers.  Outside of closer types, I don't think the human body can just repeat true 'max effort' again and again without the body falling apart.