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muddyfrogwater's picture

I highly doubt that Ichiro is washed up. So I went and poked around FanGraphs and B-Ref for a little bit to see for myself.
Career BABIP .357
Current BABIP .290
Career Isolated Power .097
Current Isolated Power .093
Career Extra Base% 5.6
Current Extra Base % 3.5
I'm not a huge stat guy, but I'll have to admit that stats have come a long way in the past decade. Certainly BABIP has to be one of the best inventions. So Ichiro's power numbers are down a bit. No homers or triples, but Ichiro's quota of doubles is normal relative to Ichiro. This isn't without reason as ground ball rate is much higher than normal and fly rate much lower.
 
Does Ichiro still see the ball well?
Currently posting a career low K rate @ 6.7%
Currently posting a normal BB rate @  7.5%
Currently posting a career best BB/K rate
Ichiro appears to be seeing the ball well enough. The power are nearly non existant, but i assume that he can still turn on a fast ball when he gets what he wants.  Fact is many pitchers pitch him low and away. Fact is most pitchers know that Ichiro is likely to ground to the left side of the infield on low and away stuff.  Yes, he of many swings.  In fact if I were to toss an arbitrary number out there on a whim I'd say like 70% low outer half pitches go to the left side of the infield,  Sometimes he waits on those pitches and tries to slap them down the 3rd base line, occasionally he breaks out the chipping wedge for a chip shot between the outfield and the infield.Mayb tis explains the golfing interview last winter. How about that, maybe he as working on his swing after all and not relaxing. Anyhow, point is  Ichiro's ground ball percent is much higher than normal, while his fly rate is much lower. If I'm a pitcher I'd rather give up a single than an extra base hit.
 
Has Ichiro lost his speed? Well yea sure a small fraction perhaps. I mean it's not like he's 28 any more. However look at this.  
Current Stolen Base  Success Rate 78%
Career Stolen Base Sucess Rate 81%
On pace to steal around 40 bags
Career average infield hits 53
On pace infield hits 48
 
He's still doing the thing with his legs. The evidence is there to call this a bad slump rather than an epic decline in skills at least for now anyhow.  BABIP suggests that he simply isn't finding the gaps through the infield.
200 hits and .300 avg.? Who cares. Whats so magical about the numbers 200 and 300? They're just numbers. To make "The Numbers" Ichiro will have to go on a tear in another month to make up for the miserable May.
So for all you folks who cheer for the numbers , I now leave you with new magic numbers. Those numbers are 189 & .296. All is not lost though, and we'll not hang our heads in shame. We'll just buck up like real troopers and live with it. :)
BTW Ichiro, you havn't been looking good in right field lately. Dude, make me happy for once and dive for a few of those balls  that bounce in front of you every once in awhile.
 
 
 

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