Good stuff, we can break this down now. More accurately Hultzen's velocity was probably gradually declining. Early season reports had him SITTING mid-90s, but the first report I heard of high 80s being mixed in was start #10, so I'll use that as a cutoff point.
1st half (high reported velocity):
61.3 IPs
1.17 ERA
5.6 H/9
1.5 BB/9
14.3 K/9
9.9 K/BB
2nd half (lower reported velocity):
53.6 IPs
1.67 ERA
6.2 H/9
2.2 BB/9
9.7 K/9
4.46 K/BB
So we can see that while the overall hittability did not change much, the dominance was at a completely different level. Hultzen particularly early in the season was especially dominant. Through his first 5 starts, Hultzen was running a 16.25 K/9!
This is why I think the velocity is extremely important when projected Hultzen's upside. We will find out very early next season what we've got in Hultzen.
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